In , an ultra-Orthodox woman aged had an average of 1. The annual growth rate of the ultra-Orthodox system slowed down in the past five years from 4. By contrast, the annual growth rate of the state school system rose over the same period from 0. There are two possible explanations for this phenomenon: the falling birth rate in the ultra-Orthodox sector; and the decline in the attractiveness of ultra-Orthodox schools for families who are not explicitly ultra-Orthodox in observance.
There is a clear female majority here as well, with women constituting Over the last decade — , there has been an almost three-fold increase in the number of ultra-Orthodox students men and women in programs leading towards an academic degree.
The number of ultra-Orthodox students in advanced degree programs has risen even more dramatically, reaching 1,—five times more than in The distribution of undergraduate subjects studied by ultra-Orthodox students is different from that for the general student population. This discrepancy can be explained by the high average size of ultra-Orthodox households 5. The gaps in income may be smaller than would appear, however, due to higher levels of unreported income in the ultra-Orthodox sector.
The change is particularly dramatic among ultra-Orthodox aged This confirms the claim that many of the young ultra-Orthodox who marry, are required to buy an apartment as a condition for approval of the wedding. They buy an apartment at low prices in the periphery, rent it out, and live in a rented apartment in more central areas.
Israel has historically had religious parties. In , for the first time, a female ultra-orthodox politician was given a cabinet post. If the nationalist-Haredi coalition is denied a majority on March 23, this could well mean change will come. Fierce opposition from the Haredim is likely, with unpredictable results. The country of about nine million has other internal fault lines: Jews versus the fifth of its citizens who are Arabs; Middle Eastern versus European-descended Jews; and left versus right, which has morphed into opposition versus support of Netanyahu.
But these pale before the secular-Haredi conflict for two reasons: it is a genuine kulturkampf and the Haredi community is growing at rates unmatched in the modern world. Its tech sector sprouts world leaders in cybersecurity, nanotechnology, ad tech, biotech, autonomous vehicles, and more. It also punches way above its weight in scientific publications, Nobel prizes , and even exported television formats. It has been ahead of the global curve on certain issues such as gay rights , electing a female leader, and decriminalizing cannabis.
Meanwhile, the Haredim live as a separate community where men are encouraged by rabbinical leaders to devote themselves to studying religious texts at yeshiva seminaries instead of working.
Generations are condemned to dependency because 60 percent of Haredi high schoolers go to institutions that, despite state funding, do not teach a core curriculum of math, science, and English. There is an expectation that the state will pay a lifelong stipend to any men who study the Torah, as at least , currently do. The stranglehold religious seminaries have on the Haredi men is maintained by a longstanding deal whereby the state absolves them of otherwise compulsory military conscription if they study the Torah a tiny minority that enlists anyway are widely shunned by the community.
Women are expected to bear and raise children, run the household, and work. They are not allowed to run for parliament for the Haredi political parties without whom the right-wing has never enjoyed a majority bar the arguable exception of These parties occupy themselves with securing state funding for the community and pushing for religious restrictions on the public life of all Israelis, such as preventing civil marriage and blocking commerce, work, and public transport on the Sabbath.
Many in the community oppose women singing in public and studies show that two-thirds want gender segregation in public transport. More noteworthy is that 90 percent want the Halakha Jewish law.
This setup might survive somehow in the current demographic breakdown, but this is where the birthrate comes in. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, Haredi women starting around age 20 have 7. Their birthrates have plummeted as the Israeli Arab middle class has grown and as Arab women in Israel have become better educated. So now the Arab birthrate, which is similar to the overall Jewish birthrate in Israel , has no demographic significance.
In addition, in contrast to the turn towards modernity in Israeli Arab society and the drop in fertility rates among the Arab population, the Haredi birthrate has remained stable since the late s, at around 7 children.
Before Israel became independent in , Haredi women here had an average of three children. Unfortunately, if the current trend persists, it would be mostly for the worse.
It would destroy the Israeli economy. In such a scenario, Israel would be expected to sink into Third World status that would also tend to drive away its more well-to-do and educated population. Under such circumstances, Israel would also clearly be unable to maintain a modern army to defend itself.
Will this actually happen? In an attempt to answer that question, Prof. Dan Ben-David of the Shoresh Institution examined another facet of this issue, namely the extent to which Jews in Israel shift their religious observance — becoming either more observant or abandoning religious observance entirely. That encompasses those who were secular and become religious, although not necessarily ultra-Orthodox, and more importantly, those who abandon an ultra-Orthodox lifestyle and become less observant.
This second question is a more critical one from a socioeconomic perspective. The aim is not to make the Haredi population of this country secular and not to encourage them to abandon their faith. After all, Israel is a pluralistic democracy and everyone is entitled to their religious beliefs. The relevant economic question, however, is how many Haredim shift their religious observance in such as way as to engage in secular studies and enter the job market.
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